Pavilion – thestar

PavREIT profit beats estimates

By RHB Research House

Market Perform (Downgraded)

Target Price: RM1.22

PAVILION REIT’S (PavREIT) first-quarter net profit of RM47.8mil makes up 27.1% of our full-year net profit forecast, slightly above our and consensus full-year estimates. No dividend was declared for the quarter, as PavREIT makes its distribution semi-annually.

The higher-than-expected revenue contribution in the first quarter of financial year 2012 was mainly attributed to the increased rental revenue and sales turnover due to the Lunar New Year and Formula 1 GP events; and the increased shopper traffic from the opening of the linked bridge between KL City Centre and Pavilion, where the manager estimates traffic footfall of 15,000-20,000 people per day.

About 17% of the net lettable area (NLA) due to expire this year was renewed in the first quarter, with rental reversion of about 10%.

Occupancy rates had dropped to around 94% for Pavilion Mall due to its refurbishment works but remain stable for Pavilion Tower.

Note that the manager expects Pavilion Tower to be fully occupied by the third quarter, as a tenant has taken up about 10,000 sq ft NLA (about 6% of Pavilion Tower’s total NLA) and is expected to move in once renovation is completed in June or July.

The conversion of 68,000 sq ft of space previously occupied by TANGS has kicked off in the first quarter. The refurbishment of the space (to be known as Fashion Avenue) is expected to be completed in September, with a soft launch targeted in August. The manager is confident that the space will be fully occupied upon it is launched in September.

Our dividend discounted model-based fair value is kept at RM1.22. However, we downgrade our call on PavREIT to “market perform” (from “outperform”), as the share price has strengthened in recent weeks, hence there is now minimal potential upside to our indicative fair value of the stock.

We continue to like PavREIT due to its large asset size, quality assets and significant long-term potential as rental cycle is still in its early stages.